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Dynamic disease modeling in NSCLC

The challenge

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) represented a core indication for the client, including a near term focus on developing its pipeline asset for the KRAS G12C segment. The client required a comprehensive view of the patient opportunity by granular sub-segments through a sophisticated model covering various dynamics including competitive dynamics and Tx sequencing.

Our solution

Stocks-and-flow approach was used to track and flow patients longitudinally as they progress/exit from successive lines of therapy based on Kaplan-Meir Curves while maintaining treatment history.

The model covered nuances unique to the disease:

  • Patients progressing through various disease states (histology/stage/biomarker/LOT)
  • Current and future events impacting the treatment paradigm such as launch of new agents, new biomarkers, etc.

Comprehensive secondary search was carried out to source model inputs such as SEER*stat, cBioPortal, clinical trials, published literature, and real-world data (provided by client).

The results

We delivered on the model allowing the client to capture granular patient flow in NSCLC by segment along with reliable and credible estimates of inflows and prevalence in various patient settings. The model was also useful in understanding potential future disruption due to innovation and introduction of new Tx.