Rethinking Early-Stage Investment Decisions for Novel Antibiotics

Harnessing the Evolving Antibiotic Pricing and Reimbursement Environment Towards Optimized Decisions

Research Contributors:Lewis Waters, Alexander Busch, Scott Briggs, Mariah Hanley, Hugo Hayes

This is a preview of our latest whitepaper. Download the full report below for insights into redefining commercial strategy in antibiotic development.

ABSTRACT:

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is escalating into a global public health crisis, projected to cause 39 million deaths over the next 25 years. This growing threat underscores the urgent need for innovative antibiotic therapies. Yet, traditional early-stage investment frameworks fall short because they do not reflect the unique dynamics of the antibiotic market.

This whitepaper introduces a forward-looking model that replaces outdated commercial proxies with a refined approach rooted in evolving global pricing and reimbursement (P&R) frameworks. We explore four core commercial indicators, unmet need, patient volumes, pricing potential, and evidence requirements, to illustrate how emerging P&R frameworks help resolve uncertainty and guide asset prioritization.

INTRODUCTION:

Traditional frameworks for early-stage antibiotic investment rely on outdated commercial assumptions, such as predictable patient volumes and stable pricing benchmarks. These assumptions no longer apply in the context of AMR. As health systems adopt novel pull incentives to address this challenge, developers must adapt their strategies accordingly.

This whitepaper presents a new approach to early-stage decision-making, grounded in sustainable opportunity and tailored valuation criteria. Topics include:

• Why traditional commercial indicators such as patient volumes and pricing benchmarks are inadequate for antibiotics
• How pull incentives reshape market access and commercial return
• Key drivers of investment success, including chemical novelty, pathogen targeting, and evidence strategy

Download the full whitepaper